Qin Dahe, Tai'an City, Shandong Province, researchers, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Third World Academy of Sciences; the present United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commanders, the Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group I Co-Chair, World Climate Research Programme Climate and Cryosphere Programme (CliC) Scientific Steering Group members, the International Polar Year 2007-2008 Joint Committee, WMO International Polar Year 2007-2008 President of the Inter-Commission Working Group, the International Geosphere - Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Scientific Steering Committee Chinese Academy of Sciences of commanders, apt Division Director, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Director, National 973 project's central scientist, chairman of the Chinese Meteorological Society, vice chairman of the Geographical Society of China.
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the past century, particularly in the past three decades, Earth's climate system is undergoing a warming as the chief function in a meaningful change. Meanwhile, the global context has also suffered a major change: water resources absences, ecosystem degradation, soil erosion, biodiversity wastage, the cryosphere shrink and so on. Climate change has become a national government, the public and industry a major care.
the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) on global climate change has completed the fourth assessment report of the 1st appraisal .1990 publishing of the report concludes that: In recent years, climate change may be natural fluctuations alternatively human activities or caused by the combined efficacy of either of .1996 second assessment report: Despite the quantitative wording of human movement on global climate impact of capacity is still restricted, and some of the key elements in the uncertainties still exist, yet pile up facts show that human activities impact on the climate have been conscious from the Third Assessment Report .2001 stronger evidence Zeyi update: In the past 50 years, scrutinized most of the warming Earth's climate, more than 66% may be due to human activities .2007 the fourth assessment report concluded that: human activities is possible to be the main cause for global warming, more than 90% this potentiality. The experts on the climate system is predicted future scenarios: compared with the 1980-1999 21st century global average surface temperature could rise 1.1 ~ 6.4 ℃; 21 century, high temperatures, heat waves and heavy precipitation may increase the frequency of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) strength may be improved; the 21st century, global average sea level will rise from 0.18 to 0.59 m; the Greenland ice sheet withdraw would lead to sea class continued to rise after 2100; outlook of the removal of gaseous CO2 in the period scale required, past and hereafter anthropogenic emissions of CO2 will warm the Earth by more than a thousand sea-level rise continues.
Climate alteration will generate a series of normal and socio-economic impact: Strong Tendency of extreme weather and climate accidents agreeable extra natural disasters caused more and weight; creation additional volatility; increasingly serious water problems; Glacier shrink significantly; important projects additional risk of safe operation; economically amplified coastal places threatened at rising sea levels; havoc of biological diversity; which will also human health, manufacture, tourism, political, economic, diplomatic and so cause a sequence of effects. It tin be said , extreme weather and climate events caused by the catastrophe will increasingly .2007 March,367 the piers below the vigilant eyes of catastrophe, the Northeast zones of the 50 annuals history, the maximum sleet over the same period, South, North severe drought; May 23, a basic school in Chongqing, underwent landslides,toronto escorts, resulting in deaths; July, the Huaihe River basin of the large torrent occurred, a digit of muscular tempests seldom hit important cities, creating journal rainfall disc of Urumqi .2008 February, underwent a infrequent snowstorm in numerous regions, some provinces and cities power grid breakdown occurred paralyzed,toronto asian escort, frozen roads blocked, pressure erasure of vegetation and other major calamity, with heavy losses. agricultural clash of global warming may be greatest, in which the famous problems facing the three are: ① output volatility may increase, anticipated to drop by 5% ~ 10%; ② layout and structure will change, changes in cropping systems and crop diversities; ③ price and investment will mushroom, fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides will increase.
Here, I would favor to accent the cryosphere and global change warm narrations. At present, the follow-up of cryospheric change and its impact studies have become an international hotspot. so-called composed of solid water ice surround. for many years an area of snow cover 7% of the global sea, the land area of 10%. cryospheric contribution to global sea level, including the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheets, mountain glaciers, ocean thermal expansion; their contribution to sea level are: the Greenland ice sheet (0.2 + / -0.1) mm / year, the Antarctic ice sheet (0.2 + / -0.4) mm / year, mountain glaciers (0.8 + / -0.2) mm / year sea thermal expansion (1.6 + / -0.5) mm / year. North and South poles as the world cryosphere two pearly hat, white cap top area of difference among summer and winter 6 times, the lower part of the white area of difference between summer and winter hats 2 times. the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula region is changed The most significant regional warming, especially in the Arctic, scientists preliminary view that the world in 2030 estimated the cryosphere major changes will occur. It manner a disaster, the rebate in Arctic sea ice on global sea traffic are becoming increasingly significant .
glaciers in China is a huge nation, is 1 of the countries most adult glaciers, glaciers 46,377 existing Article permafrost area of 2,200,000 km2, seasonally frozen floor 70% of aggregate land area. glacier change in western China is quite great, has been continuously shrinking; experts foresee that by 2050, the Tibetan Plateau in winter minimum temperature will ascend by about 3.1 ~ 3.4 ℃, the highest summer temperatures will rise by about 1.8 ~ 3.2 ℃, permafrost warming will menace to the operation of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Railway Safety. West water shortages, the shrinking of glaciers will mean inflating deserts, shrinking oasis. The most essential point is that China is the world's cryosphere essential part of the cryosphere, the changes in China will influence the cryosphere Cryosphere world.
and global, as climate and environment in China has been and will continue to produce significant changes. scientific knowing of future climate change uncertainty, reinforce the science of climate change and continuously enhance and enhance the human affect on climate system and its change awareness, concerns and climate change adaptation and mitigation measures to actively and continuously amend the level and the level of ecological and environmental conservation, is comprehensively implement the scientific evolution conception and creating a socialist agreeable society important part of the Chinese government, the mutual ambition of the public and the technological community. At the same time it should be eminent, climate change related science, high technology, economic, social, political and even diplomatic field, the natural and cultural disciplines, both scientific and scientific frontier, and is a national claim, is very important and should be highly merited. In increase, climate change narrated to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, land resources, environmental conservation, energy, materials, supplies manufacturing (industry), transportation, citizen security, ecosystems, human society should be logical to treat hh. Based on China conditions, and between countries of
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